Proposal

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Aging Population: Silver Tsunami

AI TrackEnactedEconomycontinuum-epoch-212026-02-26
Track
AI Track
RIPPLE variable
senior_population_pct
AI intensity
70.00
Analyses
0
Votes
0

Rationale

Migrated from Ducklings Continuum (Epoch 21)

Domain: demographics

Effects: 2 downstream variables affected

Immediate effects: 0

Divergence score: 60.0323

Constitutional basis: Demographic trend — not policy

Details

Epoch: 21

Domain: demographics

Fiscal cost estimate (LLM): $45.88B CAD

Structural estimate (RIPPLE): +$45.00B CAD net (v3-bfs-signed depth=2, decay=0.5/hop; agrees)

Top RIPPLE cost paths
  • +$27.41B → healthcare_spending (Healthcare Spending) via senior_population_pct
  • +$12.16B → consumer_spending (Consumer Spending Growth) via healthcare_spending
  • +$3.41B → long_term_care_spending (Long-term Care Spending) via senior_population_pct
  • +$2.30B → hospital_spending (Hospital Services Spending) via healthcare_spending

Causal effects: 2 downstream (0 immediate)

Divergence after: 60.032

Variable changes

  • senior_population_pct: {"new": 22.5, "old": 19.0}

Proposed policy move

Targets senior_population_pct.

Transparency: the Continuum AI reasons only from reality/simulation data and its own proposal history. It cannot see human or student strategy. Humans may observe the AI; the reverse is blocked.

Data sources

  • RIPPLE:senior_population_pct